Brazil (1)

My first trip to Brazil must have been in 1991. It was for Rothschild visiting our distributor in Sao Paulo and assure that our Mouton Cadet was well positioned in the few top restaurants and high end wine stores. I stayed at the Maksud Hotel also staying there was "Guns and Roses", not realizing the huge popularity of Axl Rose, it took forever to get even close to the hotel, thousands of teenage girls were lined up to see their favorite! I extended this first trip with a short stay in Rio de Janeiro actually at the Intercontinental Hotel in San Conrado where a friend was the GM. Brazil for me equal:  beaches, Fla-Flu, Corinthians, carnival, caiparinha and a lot of fun. And of course the Girl from Ipanema, pictured on the left in between my Havaianas, probably the most beautiful love song ever written.

In those days hyperinflation was the name of the game and the local supermarket was acting like a banking institute towards its vendors, we were obliged to pay for bloody everything. Walking on the beaches of Ipanema and Copacabana was not without risk. Over the years I dare to say that I became a frequent visitor to the cities of the Paulistas and Cariocas. During the BMG years for music with the local act So Pra Contrariar and the last 5 years with increased intensity for Alcatel-Lucent. 

Its Feb 2013, just back from a week in Rio where I stayed in Barra de Tijuca. Our office is a 10 minute ride from the Barra Windsor Hotel, located on the beautiful beach. Every morning at 6AM I ran about 7K on the run/bike path along the beach with a temperature already of 25C!  Great and inspiring to start busy working days! In meetings with our customer teams we discussed the upcoming Worldcup Soccer and the 2016 Olympics, both global mega events which will put Brazil and Rio in particular even stronger on the worldmap. Our telecom customers (America Movil / Claro & Embratel, Telefonica/Vivo and Oi) have exclusive rights for one of these events. They presented sketches of the athletics stadium which will have about 18 camera positions, mostly automatic some very cool new technics and from numerous angles. Therefore we anticipate that demand for communications will probably be 10 times higher than the Olympics in London, the demand on the network is tremendous and failure is not an option! So one can imagine the pressure on all involved, including us! Ta bom? 

The worldcup in particular will be an absolutely massive event and the country is so much looking forward to it, actually in June this year the "rehearsal" will take place with the Confederations Cup. During the games with Brazil schools, companies, public services will be closed. This is not only because everyone knows nothing will be done anyway but also to assure that transport in the key cities operates more or less normally. This is a moody point, in as much as I believe that the main stadiums will be ready for the 2014 Worldcup, including a massive makeover of the famous Maracana, I am not really convinced about the infrastructure. I can't believe its ready in 17 months! Sao Paulo with a population of 11,3MM and Rio de Janeiro 6,4MM are permanently congested during workdays. The airports....hmmm...not to optimistic, its still what I consider "best effort" and thus miles away from "high performance" and traveller friendly. And friendly are the people of Brazil, at least the ones I am mostly familiar with thus living and working in the main cities and all with origins from e.g. Recife, Belo Horizonte, Fortaleza, Bahia, Brasilia, the South and more. 

Brazil has had phenomenal growth during the last 10 years where the GDP/ per capita has increased from 2000 Euro per / year to now at 9,200 pp /per year and thus also creating a real and upcoming middle class leading to sky high real estate prices in cities like Rio and Sao Paulo. A beach front apartment in Ipanema is selling at $25,000 per m2. Yep! These relatively wealthy cities are counting for less than 10% of the population and if one really dive a bit deeper the math becomes even more dramatic. Its the areas in Sao Paulo such as Jardim, Moema and a few others and in Rio there is Ipanema, Botafogo and Copacabana where you will find a very wealthy population, thus its probably less than 3% which is driving these encouraging numbers. Sao Paulo has apparently the highest number of private choppers! Leaving these "well to do" areas you will discover real fast the favelas (shanty towns).  Wood, iron and or brick houses glued on a mountain where thousands of people life in pure poverty. The good news is that the standard of living in these "not so well to do" areas is improving radically. There is water, heating and yes cable! People getting jobs and that is real progress! 

In my analyses there is a real bubble in Brazil, expected to burst late 2014 early 2015 (After the final Brazil - Holland !) what keeps this country pursuing its real growth track is the nature of the people. There is a thru business sense where local economic growth is real and a high degree of "coolness" with the Brasileros itself. Despite its difficulties I am convinced that Brazil will be a player for the long run, thanks in a large part to the natural resources (Petrobras, Shell....), improved education and a pragmatic government (attention corruption is on the rise again)...and the incredible friendly and optimistic mindset of its people and ....they know how to party! Obrigado!